Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 1.399632 1.455703 1.513634 1.578132 1.648146 1.722089 1.806402
2026-01-04 1.345662 1.422034 1.503456 1.597260 1.703040 1.819481 1.958551
2026-01-11 1.291049 1.379959 1.476932 1.591537 1.724615 1.876013 2.063909
2026-01-18 1.250588 1.349454 1.459373 1.592157 1.750379 1.935843 2.174458
2026-01-25 1.199549 1.303457 1.420637 1.564558 1.739502 1.949469 2.227642
2026-02-01 1.165257 1.274626 1.399657 1.555712 1.749178 1.986976 2.311743
2026-02-08 1.133784 1.247358 1.378748 1.545093 1.755002 2.018721 2.389350
2026-02-15 1.104807 1.221637 1.358220 1.533358 1.757945 2.045870 2.461648
2026-02-22 1.086187 1.207365 1.350592 1.536735 1.779581 2.097867 2.571660
2026-03-01 1.054149 1.175653 1.320271 1.509855 1.759979 2.092626 2.598074
2026-03-08 1.028641 1.151063 1.297808 1.491887 1.750924 2.100723 2.643990
2026-03-15 1.008210 1.132038 1.281537 1.481056 1.750556 2.120356 2.708266
2026-03-22 0.998827 1.126793 1.282838 1.493759 1.783554 2.190517 2.860355
2026-03-29 0.993185 1.125893 1.289412 1.513411 1.826823 2.278207 3.050749
2026-04-05 0.977978 1.112412 1.279264 1.509995 1.837055 2.316841 3.162414
2026-04-12 0.965869 1.102463 1.273271 1.511802 1.854576 2.367405 3.300756
2026-04-19 0.943729 1.079126 1.249093 1.487667 1.832976 2.355037 3.321956
2026-04-26 0.929442 1.065530 1.237320 1.480245 1.835562 2.381117 3.418464
2026-05-03 0.915137 1.051557 1.224633 1.471022 1.834875 2.401572 3.506221
2026-05-10 0.901040 1.037529 1.211484 1.460646 1.831854 2.417752 3.587131
2026-05-17 0.892894 1.031022 1.208142 1.463935 1.849614 2.469594 3.748870
2026-05-24 0.874613 1.010882 1.185984 1.439587 1.823559 2.444784 3.742029
2026-05-31 0.860008 0.995327 1.169716 1.423292 1.809475 2.439981 3.779250